Acting in the Face of Uncertainty

From Morgan Housel

If you attempt to whittle down decisions by asking, “I like it but is it possible it won’t work?” the answer will always be “Yes.” If it isn’t, whatever you’re doing will have no payoff for being right. You have to start with default “no” and only act when you identify enough things that could go right. I was terrible at this a year ago.

Craig recently wrote:

Venture investing requires you to suspend reality, focusing on what could go right despite the huge number of things that are likely to go wrong. Those who can’t do this won’t ever pull the trigger, because the number of things that can go wrong is nearly endless.

This applies to many things in life, from careers to relationships. Being sufficiently selective while accepting of the inevitability of things going wrong is a tricky balance. It’s even harder when layered with the requirement of avoiding catastrophic, unrecoverable loss. But it’s the only way to avoid both ignorance and indecision.

Or, as I like to say, for any path, you, and especially others, can always come up with reasons not to do it.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s